Iran’s cancellation
of pilgrimage flights to Saudi Arabia is an indication of
deteriorating relations, as well as the unlikely role of religious
tourism as foreign policy tool. Iran is agitating against Riyadh in
the wake of the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. Consequently, the
Saudi religious tourism industry could face a multi-billion dollar
loss in the event of an Iranian-led Hajj boycott.
of pilgrimage flights to Saudi Arabia is an indication of
deteriorating relations, as well as the unlikely role of religious
tourism as foreign policy tool. Iran is agitating against Riyadh in
the wake of the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. Consequently, the
Saudi religious tourism industry could face a multi-billion dollar
loss in the event of an Iranian-led Hajj boycott.
Last Monday saw Iran
announce a suspension of pilgrim flights to Saudi Arabia, following
allegation of sexual assault by Saudi security personnel against two
Iranian youths undertaking the Umrah – a lesser Islamic pilgrimage
to Mecca. The Umrah is an optional pilgrimage, yet some 500,000
Iranians alone undertake the journey every year. Iran’s suspension
of Umrah flights to Saudi Arabia is
ostensibly a response to the aforementioned allegations; however, the
regional geo-political context is the main driver behind Iran’s
actions.
announce a suspension of pilgrim flights to Saudi Arabia, following
allegation of sexual assault by Saudi security personnel against two
Iranian youths undertaking the Umrah – a lesser Islamic pilgrimage
to Mecca. The Umrah is an optional pilgrimage, yet some 500,000
Iranians alone undertake the journey every year. Iran’s suspension
of Umrah flights to Saudi Arabia is
ostensibly a response to the aforementioned allegations; however, the
regional geo-political context is the main driver behind Iran’s
actions.
The suspension of
flights comes at a time of rapidly deteriorating Saudi-Iranian
relations as Tehran grows concerned about the Saudi-led, largely
Sunni Arab force in Yemen which is targeting the pre-domimately Shi’a
Houthi rebels. It is in Iran’s interests to characterize the conflict
in Yemen as a sectarian one, in order to undermine Saudi Arabia as
well as bolster its own self-proclaimed role of Shi’a protector.
Moreover, concerns about Shi’a
safety on pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia mesh well with wider Shi’a
concerns about Saudi actions – either in Yemen or via funding for
ultra-conservative Sunni sects – aimed against Shiites.
flights comes at a time of rapidly deteriorating Saudi-Iranian
relations as Tehran grows concerned about the Saudi-led, largely
Sunni Arab force in Yemen which is targeting the pre-domimately Shi’a
Houthi rebels. It is in Iran’s interests to characterize the conflict
in Yemen as a sectarian one, in order to undermine Saudi Arabia as
well as bolster its own self-proclaimed role of Shi’a protector.
Moreover, concerns about Shi’a
safety on pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia mesh well with wider Shi’a
concerns about Saudi actions – either in Yemen or via funding for
ultra-conservative Sunni sects – aimed against Shiites.
While Iran cannot
openly confront Saudi Arabia; which enjoys American protection as
well as carte-blanche from Washington to fight instability and
terrorism in the region, other avenues are open for Tehran. Iran
could follow suit with a Hajj boycott, with a
carefully timed ban potentially costing Saudi Arabia billions. This
could take to form of merely an Iranian boycott, or a larger, Iranian
inspired, Shi’a boycott in response to Saudi actions in Yemen. Such
an action would be a moral rebuke: half South African-style
divestment, half Olympic boycott, a la Moscow 1980.
openly confront Saudi Arabia; which enjoys American protection as
well as carte-blanche from Washington to fight instability and
terrorism in the region, other avenues are open for Tehran. Iran
could follow suit with a Hajj boycott, with a
carefully timed ban potentially costing Saudi Arabia billions. This
could take to form of merely an Iranian boycott, or a larger, Iranian
inspired, Shi’a boycott in response to Saudi actions in Yemen. Such
an action would be a moral rebuke: half South African-style
divestment, half Olympic boycott, a la Moscow 1980.
| Saudi forces fight inside Kaaba complex |
Interestingly,
there is historical precedent for such a move by Iran. In 1987, 400
people, including 275 Iranians pilgrims were killed in a clash with
Saudi security forces following an Iranian led anti-U.S / Israel
protest in Mecca. The 1987 Mecca Incident led to a halving of Iranian
pilgrim visas by Riyadh, which in turn resulted in Iran boycotting
the Hajj for three years from 1988-1990. Both 1987 and 2015 share
common themes: Iranian concern for pilgrims, anti-Saudi sentiments
due to Riyadh’s ties to the West, and a sectarian foreign policy
resulting in a religious travel ban.
there is historical precedent for such a move by Iran. In 1987, 400
people, including 275 Iranians pilgrims were killed in a clash with
Saudi security forces following an Iranian led anti-U.S / Israel
protest in Mecca. The 1987 Mecca Incident led to a halving of Iranian
pilgrim visas by Riyadh, which in turn resulted in Iran boycotting
the Hajj for three years from 1988-1990. Both 1987 and 2015 share
common themes: Iranian concern for pilgrims, anti-Saudi sentiments
due to Riyadh’s ties to the West, and a sectarian foreign policy
resulting in a religious travel ban.
Profitable Pilgrims:
Religious Tourism worth Billions
Religious Tourism worth Billions
The
termination of pilgrim flights to Saudi Arabia highlights the
interesting role of the religious tourism industry both within the
Saudi economy and in Riyadh’s foreign policy. The plight of the two
youths mentioned above is but the latest in a series of attacks
against Shi’as during pilgrimages in Saudi Arabia: as seen here,
here,
and here.
Such instances provide Iran an excuse with which to launch its
anti-Saudi agitation. This undermines the Saudi economy, but also the
claim of King Salman’s title of ‘Custodian of the Two Mosques’ – a
major source of legitimacy for the Saudi monarchy.
termination of pilgrim flights to Saudi Arabia highlights the
interesting role of the religious tourism industry both within the
Saudi economy and in Riyadh’s foreign policy. The plight of the two
youths mentioned above is but the latest in a series of attacks
against Shi’as during pilgrimages in Saudi Arabia: as seen here,
here,
and here.
Such instances provide Iran an excuse with which to launch its
anti-Saudi agitation. This undermines the Saudi economy, but also the
claim of King Salman’s title of ‘Custodian of the Two Mosques’ – a
major source of legitimacy for the Saudi monarchy.
Religious
pilgrimage is one of the major sectors Saudi Arabia’s non-oil
economy, comprising 2% of GDP. In 2014, Saudi Arabia garnered $8.5
billion from the Hajj alone; half of the $16
billion Saudi religious tourism industry.
Religious tourism itself is responsible for 80%
of the 17.2 million visits logged by the Saudi tourism industry in
2014. Consequently many domestic and international hospitality firms
operating in Saudi Arabia have dedicated
religious tourism brands
and chains.
pilgrimage is one of the major sectors Saudi Arabia’s non-oil
economy, comprising 2% of GDP. In 2014, Saudi Arabia garnered $8.5
billion from the Hajj alone; half of the $16
billion Saudi religious tourism industry.
Religious tourism itself is responsible for 80%
of the 17.2 million visits logged by the Saudi tourism industry in
2014. Consequently many domestic and international hospitality firms
operating in Saudi Arabia have dedicated
religious tourism brands
and chains.
| The Kaaba is dwarfed by the Mecca Clock Tower Hotel Image Credit: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com |
Currently,
in order to increase pilgrim traffic, Saudi Arabia is investing
billions in upgrading hotel and mosque infrastructure in Mecca. The
$3.2
billion Jabal Omar Development
in Mecca is erecting 40 hotel towers with 160,000 rooms. Similarity,
the Grand Mosque is also under-going a $20
billion renovation
designed to increase hourly pilgrim traffic as well as increase
praying space.
in order to increase pilgrim traffic, Saudi Arabia is investing
billions in upgrading hotel and mosque infrastructure in Mecca. The
$3.2
billion Jabal Omar Development
in Mecca is erecting 40 hotel towers with 160,000 rooms. Similarity,
the Grand Mosque is also under-going a $20
billion renovation
designed to increase hourly pilgrim traffic as well as increase
praying space.
Lack of Flexibility
puts Religious Tourism Industry at Risk:
puts Religious Tourism Industry at Risk:
Not
only the scale, but also the structure of the Saudi religious tourism
industry offers a means for Iran to agitate against Riyadh. Muslim
countries are assigned pilgrim quotas many months in advance by Saudi
Arabia; with pilgrims themselves needing
many months to prepare.
Pilgrims traveling to Saudi Arabia must do so via government approved
travel agents, hoteliers and other service providers. Pilgrims from
outside the Gulf face even more hurdles, needing
special visas, papers, and vetted guarantors.
only the scale, but also the structure of the Saudi religious tourism
industry offers a means for Iran to agitate against Riyadh. Muslim
countries are assigned pilgrim quotas many months in advance by Saudi
Arabia; with pilgrims themselves needing
many months to prepare.
Pilgrims traveling to Saudi Arabia must do so via government approved
travel agents, hoteliers and other service providers. Pilgrims from
outside the Gulf face even more hurdles, needing
special visas, papers, and vetted guarantors.
These
bureaucratic measures, leave the religious tourism industry with
little flexibility. With approximately 62,000
pilgrim visas in 2014,
Iran was one of the larger pilgrim source nations. An 11th
hour, Iranian boycott would effectively void these visas, as other
countries have long ago received their quotas and acted accordingly.
Even if Riyadh scrambled to create a face-saving, expedited approval
process for Saudi nationals major problems remain.
bureaucratic measures, leave the religious tourism industry with
little flexibility. With approximately 62,000
pilgrim visas in 2014,
Iran was one of the larger pilgrim source nations. An 11th
hour, Iranian boycott would effectively void these visas, as other
countries have long ago received their quotas and acted accordingly.
Even if Riyadh scrambled to create a face-saving, expedited approval
process for Saudi nationals major problems remain.
Even
if all vacant places were filled, Saudi Arabia would still lose
billions. This is because international pilgrims spend on average
four
times more
than Saudi pilgrims ($4633 vs. $1319). Moreover, other Muslim nations
chafe under Riyadh’s quotas, arguing that the limits are subject to
the whims of Saudi foreign policy more than the needs of recipient
nations. A huge boost in Saudi numbers would only further anger those
critical of Riyadh’s gatekeeper status. Iran’s boycott and the loss
of 500,000 visitors is, in this context, a multifaceted threat:
undermining Saudi Umrah revenues, potentially setting the stage for a
Hajj boycott, delegitimizing Saudi stewardship of holy sites, raising
Shi’a concerns over pilgrim safety, and tarnishing Riyadh’s image
abroad.
if all vacant places were filled, Saudi Arabia would still lose
billions. This is because international pilgrims spend on average
four
times more
than Saudi pilgrims ($4633 vs. $1319). Moreover, other Muslim nations
chafe under Riyadh’s quotas, arguing that the limits are subject to
the whims of Saudi foreign policy more than the needs of recipient
nations. A huge boost in Saudi numbers would only further anger those
critical of Riyadh’s gatekeeper status. Iran’s boycott and the loss
of 500,000 visitors is, in this context, a multifaceted threat:
undermining Saudi Umrah revenues, potentially setting the stage for a
Hajj boycott, delegitimizing Saudi stewardship of holy sites, raising
Shi’a concerns over pilgrim safety, and tarnishing Riyadh’s image
abroad.
Originally written for Global Risk Insights